Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. Both calibration and validation periods were chosen to test model performance over a wide range of climate and streamflow conditions. Fig. Fig. This is a good example of the use of the study data to support relatively fine-scale planning needs. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. Read on for information on our current project. Although studies addressing natural climate variability remain an important research focus for the group, over time research assessing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change has become an increasingly important need. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Thursday Sunny. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Typical month of historical flooding events is shown by the colour of the dots in the scatter plot (legend inset in the upper right corner), by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. .. slide 2 of 5. One of the first major efforts of CIG in this area was focused on the preparation of a detailed and comprehensive regional assessment report for the PNW for the 1999 National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the United States (ultimately published as Mote et al., Citation2003). Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. 2 Eleven sub-basins in the CRB used for large scale calibration (left panel). Subsetted from the, Averaged periodic drought condition ranking by basin for 2015-2020 from the, Mapped extent of wildfires from 1950-2020 from, Air quality monitoring stations within the study area. These areas are so cold in winter (DJF average on the order of -10C temperature) that a change in temperatures of 23C has relatively little effect on seasonal snow accumulation in the 2020s and 2040s. A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. (2000). The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. Climatic Change 113:499-524. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? 2013b. For each streamflow location (and its associated contributing basin area), a set of identical products is available on the study web site (CIG, Citation2013b). Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). Additional details on the approach and methods are available in the CBCCSP study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a). Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). The VIC implementations make use of preprocessed soil and vegetation databases for the basin of interest. Application Process How to Apply Sign-up for Program Updates Small black dots indicate streamflow sites where naturalized flows were not available. Potential evapotranspiration increases over most of the PNW in summer because of rising temperatures; however, actual evapotranspiration is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because evapotranspiration is mostly water limited in summer, and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. These parameters were chosen because they strongly affect the timing and volume of runoff production in the model simulations and are, in general, not available from observed data. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. (2005). Highs in the lower to mid 40s. 2), for which overall errors in meteorological driving data were assumed to be relatively small; then, using these model parameters, to check the results in smaller sub-catchments. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. A remote sensing approach, The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams, The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model, Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. For information on past projects, see our Projects Archive. Fine-scale calibration of the model to compensate for such errors, although technically feasible, is of questionable utility, because it essentially ensures that the model is getting something closer to the right answer for the wrong reasons, which in turn has the potential to distort the sensitivity of the model to changing future conditions (Bennett, Werner, & Schnorbus, Citation2012). 7). Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. 12 Changes in monthly mean total column soil moisture (OctoberSeptember) for three representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (centre), and Yakima River at Parker (right). Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. 11 Changes in 7Q10 for 297 river locations expressed as a ratio of 7Q10 for the future period to 7Q10 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods, by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones, Using expressed behaviour of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) to evaluate the vulnerability of upriver migrants under future hydrological regimes: Management implications and conservation planning. Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel About 50 of the 80 sites evaluated show monthly NSE scores greater than or equal to approximately 0.7 (good to excellent fit). Although not as extreme as A1FI, the high-end A2 scenario was archived by most GCMs and could have been used in the CBCCSP in place of the A1B scenario. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Calibration of the VIC model was carried out using an automated calibration tool called MOCOM-UA developed by the Land Surface Hydrology group at the UW, following the approach described by Yapo, Gupta, and Sorooshian (Citation1998). Climate change scenarios for water planning studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Naturalized and modified streamflow data were used to produce bias-corrected streamflow realizations (see below). Originating in British Columbia, it flows 1,214 miles to the Pacific Ocean near Astoria, Oregon. Lows in the lower 50s. As a result the largest changes in snowpack are apparent in the simulations for relatively warm coastal mountain ranges, such as the Cascade Range, and at moderate elevation in the Rockies, where snowpack is most sensitive to changes in temperature of a few degrees Celsius. These basins experience dramatic losses of snowpack and substantial changes in seasonal flow timing (Fig. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). These approaches were further developed and refined during the WACCIA in 2009 (Miles, Elsner, Littell, Binder, & Lettenmaier, Citation2010), which included assessments of aquatic and forest ecosystem impacts (Littell et al., Citation2010; Mantua, Tohver, & Hamlet, Citation2010). A set of simpler, lumped-storage reservoir operations models was used to quantify impacts in a number of smaller water supply systems. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. By that same year, a large number of natural resources management agencies in the US federal system (e.g., the USFS, USNPS, USBR, USFWS, FERC, FEMA, NMFS) were actively engaged in educating and training their upper-level leadership and staff about climate change and were attempting to acquire appropriate data and information to support long-term planning and develop long-term climate change adaptation strategies. The basalt mostly came from fissures in the ground, perhaps sourced from a hot spot that is now beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Most of the fundamental details regarding the VIC implementation used in this study are covered by Elsner et al. The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. Fig. Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. Fig. Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin, Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling. Although this project consists of an abbreviated set of scenarios and products using three scenarios (high, medium, and low impact) for one downscaling method, the CBCCSP played an important role in providing an established set of methods for developing historical driving datasets and implementing and running the hydrologic models. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). The CBCCSP also provided a complete and well-tested data processing sequence for post-processing and summarizing the hydrologic data to provide figures and analysis efficiently. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. The MOCOM-UA tool uses an objective function (defined by the user) and a shuffle complex evolution procedure to optimize model calibration parameters to create a set of Pareto (equally) optimal calibration parameters. Naturalized or modified flow data were available at a number of locations in the PNW. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world.